The emotional match of the Tokyo draw is Kei Nishikori's farewell appearance at the tournament, and his opponent is second seed Frances Tiafoe. Nishikori is a two-time champion here, so the crowd will be firmly behind him.
On paper the gap is wide. Tiafoe is a top-ten caliber talent with a huge serve, a powerful forehand and elite athleticism, and he has made deep runs at big events in recent years. Nishikori's body no longer allows him to play a full schedule, and his best assets are still there: clean groundstrokes, sharp returns and unmatched hard-court timing. He can still hurt anyone who gives him time.
The question is how Tiafoe handles the atmosphere. Facing a beloved local legend can tighten a player, and Nishikori will likely bring maximum focus to a first-round stage he has always enjoyed. If Tiafoe starts slowly, the first set could be close.
Physically, though, Tiafoe should win the longer exchanges and hold serve more easily. Nishikori is capable of a set, but not of sustaining the pace for three.
Prediction: Tiafoe to win in three sets. Confidence: medium.