Lorenzo Musetti opens in Tokyo against Arthur Fery, the British player who reached the Wimbledon semifinals this summer. It is a match between two stylists on very different surfaces.
Musetti's one-handed backhand and shot variety are at their best on clay and grass, and he has been a consistent top-20 presence. Hard courts are a mixed bag for him: he can generate spin and angles, but his defense is less effective when the ball skids through. Fery's Wimbledon run showed a big serve, a fearless forehand and a comfort with pressure that is unusual for a player at his stage.
Tokyo's hard courts should reward Fery's flatter hitting more than Musetti's spin, so this is closer than the rankings suggest. Musetti's edge is experience across a full season and the ability to change rhythm, which can frustrate a player who is still learning how to close matches against top opponents.
If Fery serves first strikes at a high percentage he can take a set. Over the distance, Musetti's variety and returning should decide it.
Prediction: Musetti to win in three sets. Confidence: low.