Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and Matteo Berrettini meet in a first-round match that pairs a defensive shot-maker against one of the biggest servers in the draw.
Davidovich Fokina has just come through a busy week in Chengdu, where he reached the final after a back problem had kept him out of much of the North American swing. His movement and shot variety were sharp there, and he showed a willingness to come from behind. Berrettini, meanwhile, remains a threat on fast hard courts thanks to a huge serve and a forehand that ends points in a hurry.
Fatigue is the swing factor. Davidovich Fokina is playing on a short turnaround after a long week, while Berrettini is likely fresher. If the Spaniard's back holds up, his ability to extend rallies and pull Berrettini out of position should decide it. If the serve dominates, a couple of tiebreaks are likely and either player can win them.
Berrettini's forehand and serve give him a route to an upset, but he needs consistency to keep pace over three sets.
Prediction: Davidovich Fokina to win in three sets. Confidence: low.