Andrey Rublev faces Tallon Griekspoor in Beijing after a strong week in Hangzhou, where he reached the final and picked up his 400th tour-level win before losing to Daniil Medvedev, who hit 23 aces in the title match. Models make Rublev roughly a 60 percent favorite here.
Rublev's game is built for fast hard courts. His forehand is among the heaviest on tour, and when he is sharp he can dictate from the first ball. The Hangzhou run also gives him match rhythm and confidence that he has lacked at points this year. Griekspoor has a big serve and a flat, aggressive forehand of his own, and he is capable of upsetting higher-ranked players when the serve holds up.
The main question is Rublev's energy after a final and a quick flight. Rublev needed tiebreaks in Hangzhou, which shows he can wobble in tight sets. If Griekspoor holds easily and pushes one set to a breaker, an upset becomes realistic.
Still, Rublev's return and consistency from the baseline should outlast Griekspoor over three sets.
Prediction: Rublev to win in three sets. Confidence: medium.