Hubert Hurkacz enters Monday's semifinal against Denis Shapovalov holding a 5-1 head-to-head edge, including a four-set win at the 2024 French Open, and that history makes him the favorite to reach Tuesday's Chengdu final. His three-set win over Martin Damm in the quarterfinal was not flawless, but his serve remains the most reliable weapon left in the draw.
The other semifinal pits second seed Alejandro Davidovich Fokina against qualifier Nikoloz Basilashvili, whose run to his first ATP semifinal since 2022 has been built on five straight sets won without a loss. Davidovich Fokina's ball-striking in his own unbeaten run through Chengdu makes him the likelier finalist.
A Hurkacz-Davidovich Fokina final would put the tournament's steadiest server against its most explosive shot-maker. Hurkacz's ability to hold serve under pressure and take advantage of the occasional error-prone stretch from Davidovich Fokina gives him a narrow edge in that projected matchup.
Prediction: Hurkacz to win the title. Confidence: medium.