Hubert Hurkacz should beat Aleksandr Shevchenko in the Chengdu Open first round, and the head to head is the cleanest evidence available. Hurkacz has won all four of their previous meetings, and none of them suggested Shevchenko has found an answer.
The fifth seed's case here is straightforward. Hurkacz is a former world No. 6 whose entire game is organised around a serve that plays even better on quick outdoor hard courts. The Sichuan International Tennis Centre rewards free points, and Hurkacz gets more of them than almost anyone in this 28 player field. When he is holding comfortably he only needs one return game per set, and the pressure lands entirely on the other side of the net.
Shevchenko is a capable ball striker who can absorb pace and redirect it, but he does not have the weapon to break serve regularly against a server of this quality. His better results have come on surfaces that give him time. Chengdu does not.
The one variable is Hurkacz's own consistency, which has fluctuated through 2026. Even at 80 percent he wins this.
**Prediction: Hurkacz in straight sets. Confidence: high.**